Education 3.0 - by Sandeep Manudhane sir

Education 3.0

I have spent my entire professional life working with students. It's been a good 17 years now. I have taught almost every single day, prepared courseware for various subjects, read across totally unrelated disciplines, and motivated students to excel in various endeavours. This has given me a SOLID understanding of how effective teaching can be done inside a classroom, why teachers bomb inside classrooms, and why some are heralded as messiahs.

Having been there and done that, as I now peep ahead, and try to envision what learning will become in the future, some strange images start to appear before me. I will try and share those in this blogpost.

Before I talk of the future, a quick recap of the past. I feel there have primarily been two major versions of education system in man's entire journey. Mankind is a recent arrival on this planet, and for the approximately 2 or 3 lac years that we have been around in more or less this modern format (homo sapiens, erect posture etc.), our primary method of education was "Observe, Repeat, Inculcate".

The seniors would hunt, forage or gather, and the juniors would look with interest. Then they would try. And fail. So they would look at the seniors again. And try. And maybe succeed. This method - Observe, Repeat, Inculcate - is what I call mankind's Education System ver 1.0.

The key features of this version 1.0 were -

1. Unstructured learning experiences - nobody would "instruct", kids would just learn
2. Holistic learning experiences - the processes were totally 360 degrees (naturally!)
3. Practical orientation of learning experiences - there were no artificial classrooms

Then came the agricultural revolution around 5000 years ago.. and with it came the formalisation of the society. It is very interesting to note how in just 2000 years, mankind changed its entire appearance. From nomadic groups, we settled into tribes, villages, towns and ultimately cities. And marriage was born. Law and Order was born. Politics was born. Formal Religion was born. And finally, Formal Education was born.

This was Education System ver 2.0. For the first time, with increasing complexity of our societies, the need was felt to structure everything in the learning processes. The Indian Gurukul system stands as a fine example of this exercise. Shishyas (students) would stay with the Gurus (Teachers) in their Ashramas (Boarding Schools) for a long time, and through a detailed formal process, undertake the process of learning and preparing for life.

As the Industrial Revolution picked pace, jobs became more and more specialised. And thus arose the need to further offer learning solutions for specialised domains. This fragmented the education system and "specialisations" arose across the world, across "domains". As society's complexity grew even more, the number and range of specialisations grew. The Education System ver 2.0 became more and more formalised and fragmented.

The key features of this newer version 2.0 were -

1. Structured learning experiences - teachers would formally instruct kids
2. Fragmented learning experiences - learning was broken up into separate pieces
3. Theoretical orientation of learning experiences - artificial classrooms created artificial, theoretical experiences

Although the version 2.0 had these apparent drawbacks, it has persisted for (thousands of) years now. That's because it prepares its participants (students) wonderfully well for a narrow range of activities expected out of them in a specialised domain. Nothing more. If someone wants to have a broad-brush type of expertise, he/she has to personally make the effort, mostly out of the formal domain, to learn newer things regularly. The version 2.0 simply adjusted itself to the new reality - a society that wanted more and more specialised knowledge, and took pride in it.

Then came the 1950s. With the knowledge revolution taking shape (the first silicon chip was made around this time), it soon became apparent that the version 2.0 will not suit our evolving needs fully. Dr Peter F Drucker beautifully envisioned it back then, and wrote about the emergence of a "knowledge society" and a "knowledge worker". That surely happened through 1960s, 70s, 80s and the 90s.

But while this was happening, the world was becoming a more and more integrated place. The rapid spread of the idea of globalisation across the world led to sharing of common practices. And these were across domains. Social, political, cultural - all kinds of practices began taking an amorphous global contour. Indians started enjoying McDonalds as much as Americans started revering Yoga.

And how did "the idea of globalisation" spread so rapidly around the world? Well, technology ensured that. Computers, telecommunication and internet all came together in a potent mix to change our perceptions from local to global.

But strangely, the extremely rigid structure of Education System version 2.0 refused to change. Call it inertia or the reputation of the solidified (ossified) Universities around the world, the methods and processes used to teach and learn more or less have remained the same the world over. Even where technology seems to have entered the classroom, nothing much has changed. At least, the teachers' mindsets have not.

But the final nail in the coffin of version 2.0 will soon be struck. And I personally feel that "the irrepresible rise of online Social Media (OSM)" will do that.

How?

Look at how a kid of say, 12 years, today leads out his/her life. He attends school daily, which is a pretty linear experience - everything is a straight line, fixed books, fixed syllabus, fixed friends, fixed teachers, fixed classrooms, fixed holidays (declared months in advance - I often suspect most schoolowners find this part most exciting and rewarding), fixed everything - and comes back home. And then jumps into his virtual world which is a totally 360 degrees experience.

While he is online, the kid does Social Media of all kinds. Facebook. Orkut. Twitter. Skype. Each one of these pulls his imagination into multiple directions with totally random inputs emanating from who-knows-where-next. Chat. SMS. Video. Talk. He keeps inputting his data and wisdom (whatever) into the media, and shares it with the world. The world is doing the same with him. There are no boundaries. There is nothing linear. And I have not even started talking about Video Games so far! When he opens the games sites, a whole new world of mind-body challenge is awaiting his daring escapades. (My friend Vishal Gondal (God-in-chief, IndiaGames) will be happy to learn that I am a big votary of using video-games as part of regular learning processes. I am, in fact, about to implement some parts of this philosophy at my business school PROTON, starting with a daylong video-gaming competition designed to bring out the best of mind-body coordination, strategic planning and operations skills, in my students.)

And then this schoolkid of ours goes to bed, wakes up, and re-enters his linear world of modern schooling! Ahhh.

{ Don't underestimate the power of social media. They are not just playtools. They are powerful catalysts of change. Social change. Any professional who has worked with/on/for softwares in his official work environment knows how boring, unidimensional and gray they can look and feel. The world of online social media (Wikis, Waves, Blogs, Diggs, StumbleUpons..) can be totally different. Colourful. Stable. Unrestricted. Multi-dimensional. High-performance. I personally feel some of the world's best brains are designing these 'sites' and the technology being used is so user-friendly (it has to be, else how will 300 million users work on it regularly with so few glitches!) it makes one salivate. So when I talk of OSM, I refer to the whole suite of technologies that are being built to address every conceivable niche of our communication and learning needs. }

OK! I know you don't quite agree. You feel this is not representative of all kids. Agreed! But for how long will we be able to hold onto that argument? Another year? Three years? Even in developing world countries, the inevitable rise of living standards, 3G, internet penetration and computer hardware (inside homes) will mean every kid has access to all this. And as NIIT's pathbreaking "hole-in-the-wall" experiment with disadvantaged kids has proven, it will take an amazingly short period of time for students of young age to master these new technologies. At least - the operational part of it (if not the design and programming part). And they do it best when left unsupervised!

And what will happen then?

Will this total disparity between a formal linear learning world (school), and an unrestricted multi-dimensional 360 degrees not create big questions?

I was lucky to have been pulled into the online world around June 2008 through a rather inspirational invite to join LinkedIn from my roommate of IIT-Delhi days (who heads McKinsey KC ops in India). Ever since, I have spent quality time online discovering the seemingly limitless possibilities OSM offers.

While I do not recommend we tear down the version 2.0 totally, I do suggest we take a hard look at what components are useful for the next decades, and discard the rest.

A cursory glance at the prism of OSM in the image above will convince you of the possibilities of new-gen learning / collaboration / working I refer to. So, let's move to the questions now!

• What will (should) classrooms of the future look like?
• How can we leverage the power of OSM in learning experiences?
• How can we integrate formal teaching with audio-visual-sensory-etc. media?
• What should be the role of teachers in these classrooms of the future?
• What should students' approach be, in these learning environments of the future?
• What should learning processes be designed to achieve in the world of the future?
• What kind of a world are we (should we be) preparing everyone for?
• What skills will effective teachers of the future need?
• How soon can a smooth transition from ver 2.0 to 3.0 be made?

Remember, the physical world of the future is far more integrated and seamless than we can visualise. In that kind of a world, what kind of skills will make people successful? Linear? Or 360 degrees?

Welcome to the brave new world of Education System version 3.0.

Shall I end without playing the devil's advocate? Not at all. I wonder, when all this technology stuff will fill our daily world, our homes, our classrooms (whatever shape they would've taken by then), our mobilesets and what not.. how will our kids learn most basic human values - empathy, teamwork, compassion, truthfulness, ethics, professionalism?

Will love to hear your comments.


Source : http://smblog.proton.in

Crystal ball gazing - by Sandeep Manudhane sir

Crystal ball gazing

If you are not a declared astrologer, then making predictions is dangerous business. If you are one, however, then you can always save your skin by blaming the stars, and of course take credit otherwise. I am not an astrologer, and I still like making predictions.

My predictions are based on my experience, and regular study of the world around. One can, with due practice, decipher patterns and trends that are visible. Variables seem to link up in some predictable ways. And outcomes seem inevitable.

So, here goes!

1. Barack Obama will grow weak over the next one year. His approval ratings will dip regularly. The dissenting Republican (and Democrats') voices will grow shriller. The structural weakness of the American economy will reflect ever more in his overt gestures of accommodation towards other States, of course, including China. The US economy will show artifical signals of recovering, but fundamentally will slide further down the slippery road of humongous deficits and no concrete plans to plug the gap. If anything goes wrong bigtime, it could be the beginning of the end for his Presidency as well.
2. China will increasingly grow suspicious of India, and issue dangerously provocative statements every few weeks. The basically robust domestic demand, and Indian politicians' rather strong stand on Arunachal and Pakistan will harden China's outlook on India. Its support to Pakistan will continuously grow, and its entanglement in Nepal and its extremists will grow too. The open-ended support in South Asia's strategic matters offered by US will enbolden China to issue reckless statements. The imminent change of leadership in China will further make it nervous of everything in the world even remotely sounding 'anti-Chinese' and will provoke wild official reactions. The Dalai Lama is headed for seriously troubled times ahead.
3. Indian industrial growth will remain underoptimised. Due to lack of creation of hard assets fast enough, we will miss out on asset creation possibilities badly. Our slow bureaucratic machinery will kill several percentage points of growth otherwise possible. Remember Ultra Mega Power Plants? 3G auctions? Grand highway projects? Nothing is moving for months. Do we have that kind of time? When our bureaucrats should be working overtime ensuring all possible clearances for big projects, they are busy doing god knows what.
4. The poor rate of asset creation will badly impact the Indian job market. New jobs will not get created fast enough, as companies will discover ways of generating profits without generating too many new jobs. Many have already discovered costs they were blind to earlier. So, the spectacular episode of solid profit growth without accompanying job-growth will continue over the next one year at least in corporate India. Corporates will use two basic tools - cut process costs mercilessly (without firing too many existing people, although), and Multitask HR. Expect a lot of rationalisation of attitude in the corporate world, as the flab accumulated during the boom years (2003-2007) gets slashed and trim sets in.
5. Israel will do something really stupid with either Hamas/Fatah or with Iran. It will launch another bloody attack on their colonies, or on Iran's nuclear installations. Either way, it will spark a series of wildly unpredictable affairs. America is growing weaker by the day, and the Israeli Prime Minister has (surprisingly for everyone) shown camouflaged disregard for President Obama's strong advice regarding 'respect' for settling the Palestine issue by creating two states permanently. The wildly popular Cairo speech of Obama has not been backed by ground level action by the US administration, and a great opportunity has been almost lost.
6. Indian government will launch, and then dither, and then withdraw an offensive against the Naxalites covering 223 districts of the nation. The stupid parochialism of politicians of the affected states will tie down the Home Minister's hands by the incessesant demands for more state level automony in handling the crisis (which they have mishandled for decades now). This fracas will demoralise the paramilitaray and police forces, and we can expect some strong statements from those quarters as well. A beginning has been made by a senior serving Air Force official recently (although in a different context).
7. There will be no conviction of any corporate honcho in the Global Crisis related scam. The US prosecutors will try their level best to nail culprits responsible for the breakdown of the securitisation markets and the consequent collapse of much of world economic momentum, but will fail in doing so, because of inherent complexity in the way responsibilites are defined in such markets. This will seriously dampen American public's faith in the 'purity' of capitalism (given their penchant for fairness and equity, and their sense of justice).
8. Food prices inflation in India will continue for some time. There is no respite in sight in the immediate future. It is painful to see no coordinated action on this front.
9. The HRD ministry in India can see a sudden change of fortunes. The rapid push to gung-ho privatisation (in a backdrop of gloomy world affairs) can backfire, if any serious and important politician takes issue with it. Very interestingly, the Minister has had a free run so far. India does not seem ready yet - at a social level - to digest massive changes to the fundamental fabric of the education "market", and the proposed legistations could spark not just debate, but a lot more!
10. Copenhagen will be a dud. Except the mandatory formal statement, nothing will come out of it. Another great opportunity lost. Expect nothing for the next 2-3 years at least. The economic cost is just too much for the developed nations to digest, and in the backdrop of a recovering global economy, China will not take chances with stipulations that bind it in any manner whatsoever.

Well, that's about it. Now I wait and watch, and pray to God almighty that some of these never happen.

Source : http://smblog.proton.in

The Tintin saga - now in a theatre near you! - by Sandeep Manudhane sir

The Tintin saga - now in a theatre near you!

Let me start by saying a big "Thank You Steven Spielberg!" for bringing Tintin on screen in a serious way! After all these years of make-do animations, here's a promise that Tintin will reach out to a new generation unaware of the magic. While as a Tintin fan I feel there's a long way to go before justice is done on the big screen to the legend that's Tintin, it's a great start.
...

Close to 80 years ago, a Belgian artist dreamed of a boy character who would take on the villains of the world, and stand for peace and justice. Little did that artist realise that Titin - his boy character - will become a legend in his own lifetime. 'Millions of books sold in many languages around the world' hardly captures the success of the boy character. The zeal and love that his fans hold for him in their hearts perhaps does.

Tintin was a result of the circumstances of those days. The artist - George Remi (R.G. - Herge) - brought real life incidents to bear upon the development of the character of Tintin. Slowly, over the decades, more characters joined the duo of Tintin and Snowy.. and the family grew to a handsome and reliable lot! Travelling all around the world, taking on the most devilish of villains in the most believable of ways, Tintin brought happiness and cheer to kids and adults alike.

Over the decades, the strength of Herge's character grew so strong that he had to often run away in isolation - to regain his mental balance (Tintin drains me completely, he would say). Each character added to the script was so profoundly intense in their own ways, it was totally magical. From the loyal and irasible Captain Haddock to the dumb detectives Thomson and Thompson, and from the ultra-intelligent and absent-minded Prof Calculus to the singing sensation Bianca Castafiore, it all fit in really well.

I grew up with Tintin through the '70s and '80s, till the time the last major adventure - Tintin and the Picaros - was published. Then new adventures stopped with the death of Herge.

But surprisingly, the Tintin magic only kept growing. Once addicted, I found it impossible to get off. In fact, like a mellowing wine, I started enjoying the adventures the more I read them (the same ones!). Strangely, even a change of published format allows for another reason for a die-hard fan to buy the same adventure book again!

So Tintin became a living legend in his own right.

I feel this is what made him so:

• Ultra-realistic drawing by Herge, taking into account the minutest of real-world dimensions
• Deep and meaningful storylines, rendered credible by real-world happenings
• Something for everyone - kids loved Snowy, adults loved Haddock, everyone loved Tintin!
• Genuine humour, clean fun
• Almost zero violence even when it was present
• Tintin hates guns, and abstains from vices (like liquor) - a perennial message throughout the series
• Pan-national appeal (perhaps villains like Rastapopulous are everywhere!)

So far, there was no serious big-budget attempt at bringing Tintin to screen. Steven Spielberg does a wonderful job of it.

Here are my observations about the movie:

• Fantastic quality of animation - real-life like!
• Nicely mixed the two adventures - "The crab with the golden claws" and "Secret of the Unicorn" to create a new story altogether
• Great idea to use a lot of characters in the first movie itself - except Prof Calculus, almost everyone was covered
• Three cheers for Spielberg for believing in the story of Tintin

Here are my suggestions for future productions (which inevitably will come):

• I feel that too many guns and gunshots were used. These are not needed in a true Tintin adventure. At least try to avoid 'Tintin firing too many shots'.. it is disconcerting to genuine fans
• Let Snowy talk. It'll be good for the storyline, even if he talks to himself only
• Too much of action is avoidable - an entirely new action sequence (in the city of Bagghar) was added to the movie (not there in original adventures). Perhaps it can be avoided or made less destructive
• The amount of damage and destruction shown in the end of the movie (in the city of Bagghar) is something Tintin would never approve of! So be cautious in your attempt to Americanise an essentially European character :)
• Turning a hit storybook into an equally hit movie is a very tough job - still, the steadfastedness with which Herge created the original deserves a matching effort by moviemakers.

I will be happy if more kids get exposed to stuff like Adventures of Tintin rather than the utter gibberish they are used to, on television.

Crumbs! I am going on and on. Let it end here! Adios amigos, see you soon.

 

Source : http://smblog.proton.in

Guaranteed formula for MBA success - Long-term vision - by Sandeep Manudhane sir

Guaranteed formula for MBA success - Long-term vision - by Sandeep Manudhane sir

Guaranteed formula for MBA success - Long-term vision

One of the questions often asked by MBA aspirants, young MBAs, and practising managers is "How do we become really successful?" Let me crisply answer this fundamental question, using my experience as a guide.

When we talk about MBAs - managers - what do these guys really do? Even before that, just who are these guys? Well, the "who" ratio is approximately 20 : 30 : 40 : 10.

• 20% are entrepreneurs - totally self-driven and in-charge of their own destiny
• 20-30% are intrapreneurs - they are entrepreneurs inside an organisation
• 40% are executives - they carry out things really well
• 10% are eternal crib-nannies - the world failed to see they are god's gift to mankind

I have worked with dynamic and successful people from all categories above (the least being from the fourth). The one thread which is common to all successful people is LONG TERM VISION. Every single one I saw had at least this one thing in common - they were all thinking and acting really long-term.

So what's that? What really constitutes long term vision?

A distractor intelligently said : in the long run, we are all dead. So for him there is no point in anything that's long-term. But what is long-term? 5 years? 15 years? 50 years? In my opinion, "LONG TERM" in any decision situation is a sufficient enough time period that you allow all players in the game to have their full effect on the situation. The subject (i.e. the manager or You) waits patiently for the final effect to display itself.

Hoping that you have understood this argument above, here are precise points.

When someone is in the first stage of her/his career, it pays to remember that it is precisely that - the first stage. The whole life is yet to happen! The first job, or the first 5-6 years of your job are your foundation years when you must focus on these four things above everything else

1. Greedily learn actual professional skills that matter - not just basic stuff like smart paper-pushing, ppt-making, and glib-talking
2. Slog your bones off so you learn more - your body can support it now (in your twenties). It will be too late after you are 30
3. Overlook the money you are making, focus only how much you are growing as a professional whose opinions people seek. It changes your *ENTIRE* perspective on life
4. Try working with the toughest bosses, not the easy ones. The tough bosses will force you to grow completely out of your comfort zones, and you will thank them for the rest of your life

I feel that 9 out of 10 successful people did many of these things in their earlier years, knowingly or unknowingly.

Let me be honest, while we are in the daily rut, it is difficult to get a 30000 ft view like the one I have propounded above. But if I am sharing this with you, maybe you should take it at the face-value.

So think really long-term. Focus on the job's content, not payoffs. And taken to extreme, if you get a chance to work with a super boss, a guy who can totally change your professional calibre, maybe it'll be a good idea to do it free of charge  :-)

Source : http://smblog.proton.in

Greatest lesson in learning - by Sandeep Manudhane sir

Greatest lesson in learning

Being a teacher, I am wonderfully blessed to be surrounded by the future always. Young women and men, bubbling with ideas, hopes, dreams, ambitions, aspirations, frustrations, sadness.. it's all there for me to study.

Let me share something I feel strongly about. Something about the fine art of being a great learner. While we all know that learning continuously is important for us to lead a fulfilled and continuously satisfied life in this human society (that is itself continuously and in many complex ways - changing), very few of us actually know the secret of fast, deep, long-lasting learning.

It is a secret I am going to let out today. The luckiest few of us may be knowing it already. Some of us may have experienced it sometime in our lives, but unluckily would have missed out on analysing it adequately. Most of us will not have even experienced it.

I learnt it when my father taught me this little, profound secret while studying in the 5th standard at the St.Paul's School Indore. My having done miserably in the 6-monthly exams made Daddy really furious at me. He took it upon himself to coach me for several weeks, one-to-one. Imagine, a fully qualified, respected Otorhinolaryngologist (ENT surgeon) teaching his 10 year old son History, Civics, and Basic Science!

So he kept teaching me all those mornings, sacrificing at times his surgery calls. I kept learning. He kept on gently pushing some values in my about-to-get-adolescent head, that was already buzzing with hormones preparing to go on the teenage rampage.

And today, after all these decades, I remember clearly the one most important lesson he taught me.

He said : "अच्छा सीखने की सबसे बड़ी शर्त है अपने शिक्षक के प्रति पूर्ण समर्पण। कोई शक नहीं, कोई सवाल नहीं। केवल पूर्ण समर्पण।"

Translated, it means, the biggest pre-condition of being a great learner (and having a great learning experience) is total surrender to the process of learning, and complete agreement with your teacher, on everything. No questions, no disagreements, no doubts. Just agreement.

The human mind learns best when it follows this simple rule.

For years together, I could never bring myself to believe this. I always found it kind of sinister, or communist. I thought that the Western model of thinking - doubt everything around you and the truth will shine forth, must be correct as they (the Westerners) are the ones who gave us the Theory of Evolution, The Microprocessor, and The Paleontological proofs of man's historic journey. (Yes, I know I was being simplistic)

How wrong I was! What wrong threads of logic I was trying to connect. Every single man or woman who has contributed to modern science has been a complete believer in something. Every single great scientist - Einstein included - so deeply believed in something that it kept propelling them forward. They completely surrendered to their beliefs, and kept plodding on and on. This "something" was their teacher.

In the broadest sense of the word, today I realise what my Dad must have meant then. The "teacher" he was speaking about was definitely not just a human being. It could be God herself. It could be mother nature. It could be your friend, your lover, your books, your wife, your child, your professor, your boss, your associate ... anyone!

Dear reader, I strongly recommend : surrender completely to the one you think can teach you how to learn. That's the surest, fastest, strongest way to grow!

And yes, this "something" can change from time to time, situation to situation.

Looking at the streams, the grasses, the raindrops

The rays of Sun shining through the dusty glasspanes

The frogs croaking, the crickets dancing, the ants marching

The man's search was on - who could have made it all?

Without realising, for once

That the creator is there, in each of His creations

The creations are He, the creator is the creation

But he kept disbelieving, and kept looking, and kept looking
For he could not surrender, he could not rejoice.

Source : http://smblog.proton.in

Mondays are 'bad' days - by Sandeep Manudhane sir

Mondays are 'bad' days

Mondays truly are 'bad' days. Don't get me wrong. BAD is an acronym I use for Beautiful And Demanding. Actually, Mondays set the tone for the entire week, and I take extra care to ensure they go smooth.

So was today. Let me share my day's learnings!

• When a company head takes a report, especially marketing reports, he/she wants material facts that shape his opinions and future decisions. So observant individuals win hands down here!
• 'Never make assumptions while working'. Good revision of basic wisdom.
• A detailed counselling of a manager responsible for several work-groups highlighted some key issues -

• Efficiency versus Effectiveness - the perennial debate - we spent some time assessing what percentage of the manager's time was being spent on what.
• Final conclusion after an hour long brainstorming - the staff reporting to him were not clear about the extent to which they were supposed to take ownership of their own work (till the last deliverables)
• We concluded that at least 25% of his time was to be spent on "effectivenss" rather than being obsessed with "efficiency" alone.

• I was reminded of the axiom - if you wish to chop a tree, spend half the day sharpening your axe. Today was the "sharpening the axe" day for my colleague.
• Three other incidents in the day reminded me (and my senior colleagues) of one of the strongest management principles ever "What gets measured gets done". This is so important a truth, that I will treat it separately in another post also.
• I took a personal tuition in the evening for almost 2 hours (from an external IT professional I respect a lot due to his practical expertise) on basic Internet related issues.
• Actually, for quite some time, I was feeling hamstrung while taking some IT decisions (costly ones!) due to lack of authoritative insights into internet issues. So decided to get myself coached today. It really helped. The guy was kind enought to come over and coach me, as I sat with my diary, noting all crucial points. (If you are a student reading this - remember - there is nothing as powerful as properly prepared, neat & clean handwritten notes)
• I now can ask sensible questions while deciding issues related to : Webservers, Dataservers, ISPs, Domain Hosting, Streaming servers, Mailservers, Spam, etc.
• For anyone who understands what capitalism is (creating a business model that removes some inefficiency from the system), here is a big opportunity. Develop some kind of technology for the neon-signages that takes care of their going "phut" in bits and pieces every time Lord Indra smiles. You have a multi-crore idea ready buddy.

Signing off, here is a powerful thought for tomorrow. I found it quite moving in the film "The Untouchables". The veteran policeman Malone (Sean Connery) judges the newcomer to Chicago Eliot Ness (Kevin Costner) who has been sent to get the dreaded Al Capone. Here goes the conversation -
Malone: You said you wanted to get Capone. Do you really wanna get him? You see what I'm saying is, what are you prepared to do?
Ness: Anything and everything in my power.
Malone: And *then* what are you prepared to do?

The great turning point! - by Sandeep Manudhane Sir

The great turning point!

Turns out 2009 was a great turning point. A culmination of several mega trends worldwide, this year saw a decisive shifting on many fronts. As news of various events, big and small, made their way to eager ears, the sensitive ones could pick rumblings of bigger trends to follow. Decisive trends.

Let me summarise my learnings from the year that’s folding up, and my understanding of what the next year, and decade hold in store for us.

1) Unipolarity is dead. Long live G-2

The singular superpower of this world – the US – finally acknowledged that it is no longer capable of running the world single-handedly. This capitulation was prompted by its economic collapse and consequent shaming (in front of the whole world), and its loss of confidence on its ability to innovate enough to pull itself (and the world) out of a recession, which threatened to turn into a depression. The US openly touted the idea of a G-2 that suddenly (and maybe unhappily for China) uplifted China from a “developing” to a “superpower” status! The mandarins in Beijing must have been shocked to see such a rapid surrender of this singular status by the US, irrespective of a conciliatory President in the Oval office. Anyway, they accepted it gladly, and are now discovering that there is a big price one needs to pay for superpower status – humility, decency and willingness to help those in need. These aren’t exactly traits Beijing is reputed for. So expect lots of incongruous and asymmetric statements and actions in the coming year, as the new world order settles and finds an equilibrium. I do not expect it to be smooth, neither do I expect it to be hassle-free. It’s not guaranteed either!

2) Business on the back-foot

The amazing liberty taken by the investment bankers in finest of US firms led to the sub-prime collapse. That in turn led to a wholesale bashing of the ideology of capitalism itself. Although that is a bit too much, but a world where 1 billion go to bed hungry each day, it was only expected. All the more, as the spillover from Wall Street to Main Street this time was much quicker, and more deleterious. So we are truly globalised now! What happens in the US banks affects us locally, almost everywhere in the world. Due to this sudden (12 months is surely sudden!) credibility crisis for capitalism’s founding principles, there is an environment of chaos and disbelief all around. Businesses and Business-leaders are stunned. Unable to believe that they could be so easily within the reach of something so pernicious, they are now slowly struggling to get their act together. Helped in a great measure by the relentless and unimaginable size bailouts offered by various governments, business has managed to save the façade from completely crumbling. A smiling face has been retained, while the back office got taken over by the governments. None of them (business and government) is eager to let it continue this way, and it is a matter of time before most bailouts result in either total collapse of the organization, or repayment of the bailout funds. The second is more likely. So we learnt some really good lessons here – a) you swing the needle too much towards the liberty side of the scale, and you degenerate capitalism into debauchery, b) governments are no longer willing to sit and watch industries die, even if that means pumping in unheard of amounts of monies into corporations, and c) business has to now work all over from scratch to regain its glory days.

I distinctly remember that through the early years of 2000s, companies like Lehman, GE and AIG used to be taught in B-schools are paragons of virtue and positive aggression. Their leaders seem to have forgotten that there is a limit to risk-taking, and healthy business demands reining in the testosterone at the right moment. Tut tut.

The coming decade will be a struggle for business to gain its social legitimacy all over again. I am confident that they will do it ultimately. While most companies anyway remain low-profile and generally good for society, the really big ones will have to go out of the way (can’t remain low profile that way!) and ensure that the broken edifices are rebuilt beautifully, ethically and convincingly.

3) It’s my life no more!

An amazing (and almost oxymoron like) social situation is evolving. The explosion of social media (blogs, twitter, orkut, facebook..) has created unlimited scope for micro-cultures to flourish. And at the same time, consumerist consumption driven by the large-scale (almost global) creation of such micro-cultures is driving climate change that is unacceptable to all. So you have a peculiar situation – Capitalism gave us the fantastic change to live life kingsize by enjoying almost every material thing we could imagine, and in the process, we ended up creating so much carbon (and greenhouse gases) that the world’s future is at stake. I heard someone say “It’s my life.” Good, but no more sir! Your actions (of consumption) are leaving carbon footprints on the environment, and hence it is totally unacceptable to everyone. But where does one begin to cut things down? Where does one rationally understand and take action? Where do nations come together and decide and act? All these are the grand questions that mankind is left to find answers to. If not solved properly, this century may well prove to be the last happy century for man as we have known him. It’s the tipping point, truly. And all of us, in our lifetimes, will see a large part of this story unfold before us.

So suddenly, post COP15, there is a worldwide sense of discomfort and disbelief that nations are unable to actually agree to specific goals that can be made to work. In our hearts, we surely believe things will work out (should work out), but the real decisions are still to be made. It is actually boiling down to the lifestyle issue, finally.

4) India undecided

 Amidst all this noise and clutter and uncertainty, India seems to stand tall. Call it wisdom or lethargy, our policymakers never allowed India to fully integrate into the world economy. The benefit of that is there for everyone to see. We escaped narrowly! Our banks had minimal exposure to the lusty and lascivious sub-prime market of the US, and hence the ripple effect never hit us hard. Our recession mood (if you can call it) was largely due to secondary reasons – IT companies losing out on big new contracts due to shrinking budgets, big hikes in food prices locally, poor recruitment scene at leading campuses, government’s failure to create large-scale assets through big projects – and so on. Grudgingly, even China understands the important role that the juggernaut called India – 17% of world’s population – has to play in the global economy now. India, however seems unsure of its standing. Though we are assertive enough (we did not sign the NPT) and decent enough (we did not attack Pakistan post 26/11), our exact position needs to be recalibrated now. The world needs more precise definitions.

Remember, China is dead scared of India. President Hu Jintao applies his lathi everytime someone dares question his or the Party’s judgement. Indian leaders wield no such lathi. They are under the democracy scanner always. Despite this apparent lack of strength, Indian democracy goes from strength to strength. This makes India inherently much stronger than the monolithic but brittle Chinese polity. In the next decade, expect something dramatic to happen along those lines in China. History bears witness to the fact that when the democracy tide turns, no force is able to hold its pressure.

I find these times amazing! Since we are an integrated world now (at least online), the ripples travel really fast. I hope that mankind’s cumulative wisdom is able to hold itself really well, and that by 2100 AD, we would be on the route to eternal prosperity having contained the Capitalistic libido at reasonable levels, stabilized the population (at 9 billion) and with a sure agreement that space exploration and colonizing other worlds is our ultimate destiny. (What a thing to say in the middle of a world recession!)